Optimizing Oil & Gas Forecasting and Valuations with Spotfire

Addressing the Challenges in Oil & Gas Forecasting and Valuations

The oil and gas industry faces unique challenges when it comes to forecasting and valuations. Accurate production predictions are critical for making informed investment decisions, optimizing performance, and maximizing returns. Traditional forecasting methods are time consuming, often fall short, struggle with data inconsistencies, complex reservoir dynamics, and the need for rapid, reliable predictions. This is where the Analytics for Energy (A4E) suite, developed by Blue River Analytics, comes into play, specifically designed to tackle these industry challenges head-on.

The Need for Advanced Analytical Tools in the Oil & Gas Industry

The complexity and scale of data in the oil and gas sector demand sophisticated tools that go beyond conventional approaches. The A4E suite addresses this need by offering comprehensive templates and workflows tailored for Exploration and Production (E&P), Minerals, Banks, and Equity sectors. Unlike black box solutions, A4E is pure Spotfire which provides a transparent development methodology, giving users full control over the Spotfire tool and ensuring that insights are actionable and trustworthy.

How A4E Enhances Forecasting and Valuations

1. Efficient Well Selection and Production Review: A4E's Forecasting and Valuations Workflow leverages Python and R data functions, enabling users to efficiently assess the potential of new deals. The workflow includes advanced well selection and production review capabilities, ensuring that every decision is backed by robust data analysis.
2. Advanced Decline Curve Analysis (DCA): The DCA Autocast feature utilizes start-stop segment and outlier detection, processing up to five wells per second in both streams. This rapid fitting process is crucial for identifying production opportunities and making timely decisions.
3. Comprehensive Normalization: By employing multivariate and principal component analysis on completion and production attributes, A4E normalizes production data to create more accurate type curves. Users can generate various types of curves, including Average, Mean, P-hat, Percentile, and Sum, providing a detailed understanding of well performance.
4. Type Curves: Users can generate various types of curves, including Average, Mean, P-hat, Percentile, and Sum, with and without normalization providing a detailed forecast of potential well performance.
5. Probabilistic Forecasting with MCMC: Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to evaluate well and type curve parameter distributions, adding a layer of probabilistic forecasting that accounts for uncertainties and enhances the reliability of predictions.
6. In-depth Economic Analysis: A4E integrates economic evaluations for wells and type curves, with case model controls for investments, expenses, production metrics, and commercial terms. This functionality supports comprehensive economic case comparisons and generates detailed 40-year cash flow projections.
7. Seamless Data Integration: A4E offers easy plug-and-play connections to all well header and production data sources, ensuring seamless integration and continuous data flow for real-time analysis.

Well Spacing and Gun Barrel Plot

Well Spacing Tool: Well spacing is a critical factor in optimizing production and EUR. The A4E Well Spacing tool automates spacing measurements, offering an easy-to-use interface in Spotfire. It calculates well density using user-defined ellipses, analyzes parent-child relationships and degradation over time, and provides traditional X, Y, Z spacing measurements. This comprehensive approach supports optimal well placement and optimize resource extraction.
Visualization and Probability Analysis

Probability Plot: The Probability Plot template complements other A4E tools by providing detailed visualizations for Oil & Gas data. It allows users to create probability and comparison plots, unlocking powerful insights from A4E outputs. The Probit Plot template offers a free-form interface for visualizing key metrics such as EUR, Arps Fitting Parameters, Actual and Modeled Production, and all economic measures.

Conclusion

The Analytics for Energy (A4E) suite of Spotfire templates by Blue River Analytics delivers a set of analytic tools with unparalleled speed and flexibility, addressing the unique needs of the oil and gas industry. By providing advanced forecasting and valuation tools, A4E empowers professionals to make data-driven decisions, optimize well performance, and maximize returns. With its transparent, non-black-box approach, A4E ensures that insights are not only powerful but also actionable, delivering advanced analytics into the hands of subject matter experts.

Final Note

This article is part of collaboration with Blue River Analytics to present their A4E solution in Dr. Spotfire Session.

Resources

- https://youtu.be/hXm1UXpEqQ4?si=OFvJdoM5U2sk0Wfb